Today’s news of slowing job and wage growth has mortgages in retreat from another run towards 7 percent, and the 10-year T-note down to 5.01 percent from a 5.2 percent May high. A Fed pause at its June 29 meeting is again a medium probability.
The most accurate housing-market numbers come from OFHEO’s House Price Index, suffering only from time delay: 1st-quarter nationwide home-price appreciation fell to the lowest level in two years. 8.12 percent ain’t bad, but it’s very likely to go lower; from 2004 going all the way back to 1990, only three quarters enjoyed annualized appreciation as high as 8 percent.
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